The Turkish economy has made impressive growth of 11.7 per cent yoy in the first quarter. This is the fastest rate of growth for the past six years, data show. In the previous quarter Turkish economy grew by 6 per cent. Preliminary expectations of analysts did it for an increase of 11.5 per cent. If adjusted for the number of weekend gross domestic product grew even 11.8 per cent. Seasonally adjusted quarterly change of hand is 0.1 percent, official data showing. Because of strong growth the government is preparing to increase its forecast for the economy for 2010 is expected to increase GDP by 3.5 per cent. The forecast of the International Monetary Fund is nearly two times higher - 6.3 per cent. Since the beginning of the crisis in Turkey, there was no rescue of banks, but earlier this year, the government terminated its talks with the IMF for a loan saying the country alone can secure the necessary funding.
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The Crude oil price rose for a second day after the report of the Ministry of Energy in the U.S. showed a surprise drop in oil stocks. Another reason is that China’s GDP for the first quarter grew at a strong pace for the last three years. Yesterday it was reported that crude stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels, the market expected an increase of about 1.5 ml. barrels. This was the first decrease in reserves from 11 weeks onwards. Earlier today it was reported that China’s economic growth for the first three months amounted to 11.9%. U.S. crude for delivery in May rose 37 cents, or 0.4 percent to 86.21 dollars in early Asian trade. Yesterday contracts rose 1.79 dollars to 85.84 dollars interrupted series of five consecutive sessions of decline. Since the beginning of the year, futures prices rose by 8.5%
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The strong jump in gross domestic product of the United States failed to halt fall in oil prices. The price of energy raw materials fell below $ 73 a barrel due to the appreciation of the dollar and concerns that energy consumption in the largest economy in the world will remain lower than average this year. U.S. light crude for March delivery fell 75 cents, or 1 percent, to 72.89 dollars per barrel in late New York session today’s oil market. This is the lowest closing level for the last month as the price of oil was down during seven of the last eight sessions. International petroleum exchange in London Brent crude slipped by 67 cents, or 0.9 percent, to 71.46 dollars a barrel, sent Wall Street Journal. Initially, the price of oil soared to nearly $ 75 a barrel after news that the U.S. economy has grown with the record for the past six years 5.7 percent in the last quarter of 2009 but the economic expansion has so far not been able to increase energy consumption in the U.S. Demand for energy resources in the country is still less compared to prior year, while crude oil stocks increased in the last four weeks. It was clear from the data of the Ministry of Energy, which was published in mid-week. Moreover, the U.S. Dollar is rising by about a fourth day against the backdrop of stories about the financial problems of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland which are associated with their large budget deficits. Appreciation of the dollar makes the price of oil higher, expressed in other currencies.
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The retail sales in the U.S. showed a surprise decline in the festive month of December, according to figures the Department of Commerce in the United States. For the last month of 2009 the decrease in amount of 0.3%, which came after growth of 1.8 percent in November. Initial data for the eleventh month were more modest growth of 1.3%. Economists’ expectations for December were for growth of 0.5 percent, the agency adds. Their forecasts ranged from “no change” to the growth rate of 1.2%. In 2009 for all retail sales with a decrease of 6.2%. This is the strongest decrease since 1993 when statistics started on this indicator. Meanwhile it became clear that more people than expected have completed applications for unemployment benefits. Their average number for the past week was 444 thousand by 11 thousand or more of the data for the week before. Projections were for a level of 437 thousand requests.
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The record decrease of its gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for the third quarter of Iceland, whose economy continues to bear the heaviest impact of the collapse of the banking system and the local currency, Reuters reported. Statistical Office in the country announced that GDP fell by 5.7 percent for the third quarter compared to the previous three months, a decline on an annual basis was 7.2 per cent. According to statistics, this is the biggest fall ever recorded. Data on the economy shrinking for the second quarter were revised to -6.2% yoy in the previous estimates of -6.5%. Quarterly revision is to -2% compared to -0.4%. “Of course, Iceland is facing a significant contraction (the economy), but we hope to see improvement on a quarterly basis,” commented Peter Sandger by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB). “Domestic demand is high pressure because it still does not completely well-functioning financial system,” he added.
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Standard & Poor’s gave a negative outlook on the sovereign credit rating of A-Greece, sent Wall Street Journal. From credit rating agency explained its decision, stating that the plans for fiscal consolidation of the Greek government is unlikely to provide sustained reduction of fiscal deficit. S & P reduced the rating and the prospect of Portugal negative from stable because of the deterioration of public finances of the country. This increases the possibility next year’s rating of A + Portugal to be reduced if the deficit remains large, and growth of the country’s economy - weak. Economists say the evaluation of S & P to Greece is not surprising since it reflects the growing concerns of investors about the country’s fiscal outlook for expected budget deficit for this year from 12.7 percent of GDP.
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Today’s trade was completed with the index rises for most of the Old Continent after news that third quarter has ended the recession in the eurozone. The session brought a third increase in pan-European index Dow Jones Stoxx 600 and the last five days brought his second consecutive weekly increase. Dow Jones Stoxx 600 added 0,5 per cent to 247.8 points and thus increase his weekly lead to 2.8%. Since early March, before the stock measure, which monitors the securities markets in 18 western European countries rose by 57% led by hopes that the world economy recovered. During today’s trading session it became clear that the euro area economy grew by 0.4 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous, when contracted by 0.2 percent on a quarterly basis. However, analysts had expected stronger growth in gross domestic product of the 16 countries adopted the euro, from 0,6 per cent. Stock indexes rose in 12 of the 18 western European countries headed by the German DAX and UK’s FTSE 100. They grew at a 0.4 percent to 5686.8 points, respectively, and 5296.4 points. For the past five sessions DAX rose by 3,6 percent, while UK’s FTSE 100 rose 3 percent on a weekly basis. Preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office showed that gross domestic product in Germany rose by 0.7 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous, due to the increase in exports and capital investment in machinery, equipment and construction.
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The Industrial production in highly dependent on exports to Slovenia decreased by 18.4% in August, but the decrease was less than reported in July, 20.4 percent. On monthly basis, the production marks the second consecutive increase of 4.9 percent after 0.9 percent in July. Analysts comment that the country started gaining pace after the leading economies in the European Union have shown signs of improvement. This reflects positively on the economy, which exports about two-thirds of the entire production in the countries of the Community. In late September, it became clear that the manufacturer of household appliances Gorenie e increased capacity because of rising orders for stoves, refrigerators and other appliances.
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The recession in the United States has extended its grip more than the previous data showed, writes Bloomberg. The trade ministry revised U.S. GDP data for the country to a decline of 0.7 percent for the second quarter versus the first made with seasonal adjustment. Two initial estimates show a decline of 1%. The decrease was significantly less than the reported first-quarter decline of 6.4 percent. According to the reasons for the positive economic perspective correction are the revised data for consumer spending (accounting for about 2 / 3 of GDP). For the second quarter, they decreased by 0.9% instead of the original 1%. Cost of business expenses are decreased by 9.6% compared to previous data for a decrease of 10.9%. Least one distributed data indicate that the decline in U.S. GDP for the second quarter in the U.S. over the same period last year was 3.8%. It is the largest annual declines after a 1.9% and 3.3% respectively in the last quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009.
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